Study Notes on Recession

(1) I have been less than enthusiastic about an Obama presidency. But now, all I want to do is to pray and support Obama. President Obama is our only hope to get out of the current economic difficulties. The success of the economy and the country is far more important than the pride of one individual. A prospect of having a four year recession is daunting. Just thinking about it makes me sick.

On the opposite, I am also every hopeful. Why not? The earth has not been hit by another planet. We did not suffer a massive nuclear attack. We have not unexpectedly run out of mineral resources. All the problems are transactional which can be sorted out. On the financial markets, we need to figure out who has lost what amount and make those responsible recognize or pay for their losses. Then we may outlaw those unnatural financial deals and let the economy continue to run. The auto industry has to lower their overall cost structure. A tough job for sure. But the iron and steel industry has done it; the airline industry has done it. So will the automobile industry. All we need is a strong political consensus and will. Obama and his team have shown such guts.

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(2) After some self study, I am as confused as ever before on the cause of the current economic difficulties. All I can share is that the following folks were awarded with Nobel Prize on Economics on financial engineering related topics. I will leave the thinking to you, the readers of this page.

1997 - Robert C. Merton, Myron S. Scholes
"for a new method to determine the value of derivatives"
1994 - John C. Harsanyi, John F. Nash Jr., Reinhard Selten
"for their pioneering analysis of equilibria in the theory of non-cooperative games"
1990 - Harry M. Markowitz, Merton H. Miller, William F. Sharpe
"for their pioneering work in the theory of financial economics"

Source:http://nobelprize.org/

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(3) If history provides any clues, the current recession is already longer than most postwar downturns. How much longer will it run?

8/1929 – 3/1933 : 34 months
4/1960 – 2/1961 : 10 months
12/1969 – 11/1970 : 11 months
11/1973 – 3/1975 : 16 months
1/1980 – 7/1980 : 6 months
7/1981 – 5/1982 : 16 months
7/1990 – 3/1991 : 8 months
3/2001 – 11/2001 : 8 months
12/2007 - ?/? : 12 + ? months

Source: National Bureau of Economic Research
========================================
(4) On the lighter side, let us have a small quiz.
What is the difference between a recession and a depression? Please choose the most appropriate one below.
(a) A recession is less a problem than a depression.
(b) A recession is about money and depression about headache.
(c) They are the same thing. Those two words may be used interchangeably.
(d) They are both about losing jobs, while the former is about your neighbor and the latter is about you yourself.

* Which ever you choose is the best answer because economics is a dynamic field.

60 Minutes Missed The Point

Being a Monday morning quarterback is easy, but CBS 60 Minutes could have messed it up. In a story about the inner circles of the Obama campaign, Steve Kroft summarized the reasons for Obama’s campaign as “… by largely ignoring that their candidate happed to be a black man.” Steve knows that this is only half true. The Obama campaign never failed for a second to spread the message that Obama is black. That was how Obama got 95 percent of the black votes. Not all blacks in this country are democrats. What Obama campaign really did was putting on a double face -- playing the race cards with black voters while telling the non-blacks that race is not an issue. Alas, McCain played it straight. He never played the race card even when Obama fell to a weak spot as the Jeremiah Wright video started to spread on the internet. Obama’s inner circle admitted in the 60 minutes interview that they were caught off guard. McCain just let Obama get away by making one public speech in which he criticized and defended Jeremiah at the same time. Of course, the deciding battle was the collapse of the Wall Street. When a financial crisis began to threaten the Main Street economy, many votes started to blame the Republican Party. McCain lost much of his support base.

The First Black President in US History

He made it.

First, Obama should be grateful for his No.1 cheer leader, President George Bush for doing such a terrible job in the past 8 years—with a war on terror mired in mud in Iraq and Afghanistan and the economy going down to the tank. Secondly, Obama should be grateful to his opponent, John McCain whose unique personality gave Obama pockets of opportunities here and there. Osama’s campaign is also a lot better organized and effective. We are at a critical historical junction. We need an experienced leader to be the commander in chief and we need a steady captain to steer this country out of a dangerous storm. Now that people have spoken. I know many who voted for Obama are desperate about their lives and are led to believe that any change is better than the status quo. There is a high chance for Obama to become a legendary President along with Roosevelt and Kennedy. I just wish that Obama will not make changes just for his personal ambition to become a national hero.

A different perspective of the CMM model

DTrace useful links

The following is from http://johnjmclaughlin.blogspot.com/2007_09_01_archive.html

Peerapong Kunasirirat posted a nice list of DTrace links in a recent posting:
Brendan Gregg's Blog (the creator of DTraceToolkit) : http://blogs.sun.com/brendan/
Brendan Gregg's Home page : http://www.brendangregg.com/
DTrace Tools : http://www.brendangregg.com/dtrace.html%20
DTraceToolkit : http://www.opensolaris.org/os/community/dtrace/dtracetoolkit%20
DTraceToolkit Preso file : http://prefetch.net/presentations/DTraceToolkit_Presentation.pdf%20
Brendan Gregg's Preso on DTrace Workshop : http://www.context-switch.com/performance/dtrace_workshop01_slides.pdf
OpenSolaris DTrace Student Guide : http://opensolaris.org/os/community/documentation/files/studentguide.pdf
SolarisInternal.COM DTrace Intro : http://www.solarisinternals.com/wiki/index.php/DTrace_Topics_Intro
SolarisInternal.COM DTraceToolkit : http://www.solarisinternals.com/wiki/index.php/DTraceToolkit%20
ColorTrace : http://blogs.sun.com/brendan/entry/colortrace%20
Blog O' Matty : http://prefetch.net/blog/index.php/category/solaris-dtrace/I'll addTech Talk at Google on DTrace : http://blogs.sun.com/bmc/entry/dtrace_at_google

Let 'mark-to-market' stay

On Monday, as Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson’s 700 billion bailout plan was rejected by the Congress, former House speaker Newt Gingrich started to preach for suspending an accounting rule as an alternate plan solve the current financial market crisis. Newt made appearances on Fox New, on CNN and published a commentary on the Forbes.com.

“Probably 70% of the real crisis that we face today is caused by mark-to-market accounting in an illiquid market," Newt said, "… If regulators on their own--or Congress, if regulators fail to use their discretion--can fix 70% of the financial crisis by changing the mark-to-market accounting rule, we should change the rule first before attempting to pass another reevaluated bailout package. “

Newt failed to conceptualize the issue and his reasoning is flawed.

Getting rid of ‘Mark-to-Market’ accounting rule will make the symptom a little less severe but will not help with the disease in the long run. We do not have to go back too far in history to find a lesson. In late 1980s, Japanese economy suffered a burst of their financial bubbles. Right before that time, the first 20 largest banks in the world were mostly Japanese. The reason was that those Japanese banks all had loaded with loans of the Japanese real estates which had their prices gone through the sky. When the real estate market crashed, the Japanese banks were on the brinks of collapsing. Fortunately, there were no “mark-to-market” equivalency in Japanese accounting rules and those Japanese banks were allowed to ‘write off’ those bad loans over time with their profits. How long? Till recent years, some the Japanese banks are still working those numbers. In fact, the Japanese economy never fully recovered from that financial crisis. Question to American people is if they want to get rid those bubble quickly and move on or to bear with this pain for the next 20 years.

The fundamental accounting principle is to protect the investors. To that end, it generally requires that the public company take financial gains conservatively and recognize loses aggressively. ‘Mark-to-market’ was created under this spirit. Before this rule was in place, there had been many frauds by company managements who cheated investors by keeping assets on books at their original purchase price. While actually, the market values of those assets had dropped to near nothing. With ‘mark-to-market’, the management will have nowhere to hide. Of course, by then, the account board could not have anticipated ‘mark-to-market’ being applied in such a volatile and yet illiquid market. By then those financial scientists were still holding real world jobs in academics or industries. They had not yet landed on Wall Street virtual economy and had not yet invented those derivatives now known to us as CDO, CDL and SWAPTIONS. Wall Street absorbed those toxic assets out of greed. For years, they booked billions upon billions of profits. Never had anyone cried foul. Today they are losing money and want to suspend the rule to cover up their mistakes. If SEC indeed suspends the 'mark-to-market' rule as Newt has insisted, investors will not know a financially healthy company from a sick one. Worse, those CEOs who made tons of money by participated in those years' near fraudulent operations, will, once again, be able to report 'profits' and take home an obscene sum of financial "rewards." It may be a good idea for the Wall Street, but will it also be a good thing for the Main Street?

http://www.forbes.com/home/2008/09/29/mark-to-market-oped-cx_ng_0929gingrich.html

China's First SpaceWalk

Buried among news of presidential election and a historical financial government bailout of the failing financial market is that successful space walk by 3 Chinese kaitonauts. China is now the third country capable of sending people to walk in the space. After hosting a summer Olympic game, Shenzhou 7 spaceship’s successful launching and recovery will boost the Chinese national pride to a new height. Congratulations to the Chinese people!

There are no shortages of comments on the Chinese media and web chat rooms on the significance of this achievement. True, a human spacewalk helps covering up the bad publicity of an outburst of tainted baby milk powder; it has the potential of enhancing China’s military power; it helps creating thousands of new business and jobs. Out of the many possible impacts, one stands out is the people -- thousands upon thousands of young people who worked directly or indirectly on the space program. Right before launching, on Saturday (9/21/08), the official Chinese news agency – Xinhua released a picture on the 7 commander and deputy commanders. Their average age of this crew is only 45. Gone are the people in their 70th from the first 3 Shenghou launches in the past 5 years. From this news, we can further extends the majority of the Chinese space program is made of people in their 40th or younger. At this young age, the Chinese space program will have a bright future.

One may wonder what happens to those in their 50th and 60th? Giving posts directly to people 20 years younger of their average age must have by passed many age groups in between. China is a society that has a history of emphasizing the order of age. The truth in today’s China is that there are not many people in that age range to be passed by. People in those age groups are simple absent on the high tech working places. Growing up during ‘the Great Cultural Revolution, they squandered their best times in life playing Chairman Mao’s Red Guards or doing the manual labor in the countryside. Chinese universities were either engaged full time in political turmoil or simply closed during the 1960s and 1970s. Many people praise the Chinese communist party and government with China’s space program citing only with this kind of power concentration that China may get the kind of success. They missed to see that United States has had a successful space program for a long time. They also failed to notice that the flip side of unchecked power concentration is havoc. If the few individuals in top power decide to do wrong things, there will be very little the rest of the country can do to stop them. In 1950s, 1960s and 1970s, up to 3 generations of people were sacrificed for one top person’s personal ambition to become a world revolutionary leader. When Chairman Mao died in 1986, the country economy was on the verge of collapse. Millions upon millions of people did not have enough to eat.

In June 1989, there was a pro-democracy movement in Tiananman square led by college students. That movement was squashed in cold blood. Since that time, the Chinese communist regime adapted a historical compromise with the people. It stopped all ideology maneuvering and focused, instead, on developing the national economy. The ‘opening up to the world reform’ has brought about unprecedented economic prosperity and social freedom to tens of millions Chinese people. I applaud those changes while also believe the Chinese people deserve much more. Along with the economic advancement, the Chinese Communist Party should start political reforms. It is high time for the ordinary Chinese citizens to know the inner circle of government operations; it is high time for the ordinary Chinese citizens to be given back their citizen’s rights to participate in the national political process. Once knowing that the Chinese space programs have been endorsed by the Chinese tax payers, people in rest of the world will cheer for China’s spacewalk with whole hearts.

Obama and McCain did their 1st presidential debate while I could not careless

Presidential candidates Obama and Mccain argue over war, taxes in 1st debate held last night in Oxford, Mississippi. While the US financial market is crumbling and our jobs are in danger, I found it difficult to spend time on this less important issue. This is a great country with great government institutions. Whoever is to hold the office of the president is less a problem than losing jobs. I did not even bother to turn on my TV. I studied.

Intrepid

One does not live for this world,
a little effort,
a little love,
a little idea,
a little persistence,
a little sharing,
and a little time,
together, we can make a much better world.

A Boring Friday Before the Labor Day Long Weekend

(1) The 2008 Beijing Olympic Game closed on Sunday. The host country got 100 metals. Out of this total, 51 are gold -- a gigantic achievement for China. One day after the game’s closing, the media started to worry about an after-match trauma. As cars started to swamp Beijing streets once again, how long would the Beijing residents be able to enjoy a clean air and blue sky? What people should do about the run away inflation? What the government would do with the stock markets which after hitting a 3 year low before the Olympiad dropped another 30 percent during the game? What would the business do as exports showed a first sign of slow down in a 10 year up trend? Would the government really be able to recover all the money invested in the sports facilities? Good questions.

Watching the 2008 Democratic National convention in Denver, I suddenly got an answer to the last question. In fact, Beijing had had some football size stadiums that could have hosted the Olympic opening ceremony. Why did they bother to build a new one? This architectural master piece is most suitable to host a national convention. One day, billions of Chinese will hear the voices of their own Ted Kennedy, Hillary Rodham Clinton from a podium at the Bird’s Net. Once that happens, China will recover the full cost of all Olympic infrastructures. On this subject, professionals can forget about their mathematical, financial equations.

(2) Barack Obama officially accepted a Democratic Party nomination as a presidential candidate on Thursday night. It was the first time I heard an Obama speech in its entirety. Mr. Obama looked presidential. His tones carried a quality of a persuasive priest. He rightly pointed out that we should withdraw from Iraq – from a war of no win. He also nailed it on the head that we should complete the war in Afghanistan by wiping out the theorists in the caves. Mr. Obama also gains points by making compromising suggestions on the two issues that potentially could split the country, abortion and gun controls. Some other promises he made, such as tax reduction for 95% of Americans, universal healthcare are good to the ears. But I have not been able to come up with Obama’s math. Obama said he will elaborate those plans in the future presidential debates. Let’s just wait a bit.

Last night was an Obama’s night. He put on his best show and scored nicely. He apparently convinced his believers. Will he win in November? Here let us draw parallelism from the Olympic gymnastic shows. One girl has just scored nicely. The audience has to wait for second girl to complete her exercise. If John McCain makes many ‘un-forced’ errors, Senator Obama will be the next president.

(3) I have been having ‘Network World’ magazine for many years. Never read it seriously. Last time when my free subscription was about to expire, I renewed reluctantly only after the magazine simplified the renewal process to a single mouse click. In the last issue, an article stuck a cord in my heart. “20 ways to survive a layoff” stood out from many of the articles on this topic. It was written by an author who has been there, done it and survived it himself. The author’s personal experiences are not what the academic career counselors can offer. The author throws in many personal details that gave the article an irresistible power. In bed, I picked up this magazine to make me go asleep fast but ended up reading the entire article multiple times. All the advices are genuine. Some details are extremely touching such as on applying for unemployment claims, in cutting the cost of food by storing milk bought in bulk in the freezer, buying health insurance and using job boards. Thank you, Ron Nutter, for writing such an authentic piece. Speaking of authenticity, maybe it is not a bad idea to send a copy to Senator Obama's new partner Senator Joe Biden.

The Splendid Beijing Summer Olympic Opening Ceremony

The Beijing Summer Olympic Opening Ceremony caught the eye balls of the world with its splendidness. In my opinion, this opening ceremony has been the most artistically beautiful one in all Olympic history. NBC alone attracted 34.2 million viewers. While the most recent Summer Olympics, in Athens four years ago, averaged 25.4 million viewers for its first night and in Sydney in 2000 had 27.3 million viewers, according to Nielsen. Friday night, as the whole world was watching Beijing, watching China, we overseas Chinese are proud for the achievement of our mother country. One goal of this year’s Olympic game was to let the world know China. From this perspective, China has made a huge success.

The media coverage was overwhelming. Let me not to try to outdo the professional journalists with my own praises. Everyone who wants to enjoy the shows may do so from http://www.nbcsports.com. I would like to spend some words on those who remain critical of China’s human right records, Tibet and China handling of Darfur matters. On Sunday, NBC’s anchor Bob Costas interviewed President Bush in his NBC studio overseeing the Tiananmen Square. Four out of 5 questions was on those lines. The President answered all questions with almost the same argument, it is better to engage China than otherwise. He also urged the future Presidents to follow the same policy. Siding with the President, I would like to add that while Olympics is not going to solve all the world’s problems (incidentally, a war broke out between Russia and Georgia on the same day of the opening ceremony), the world will be much more peaceful with the Game than without; While some of the criticisms on China are understandable, the Olympic history will be much richer with a Beijing chapter than without.

My second thought was on city of Beijing where I spent the first 26 years of my life. As the news coverage of the Olympic Games continues, people will see more of her beauty. Some of the buildings and street scenes are new to me as well. But I do not need to know every new façade to know the city. I know her by heart. When I left China to pursuit my graduate studies in the US in 1986, I had one bicycle and a 12” black-and-white TV set among my most valuable possessions. I had never seen highways on which many cars moving in parallel towards one direction. I had never had a personal bank check or ATM card. What I had was a government issued coupon book on my monthly food rations. Yet I was able enjoy blue skies and clean air. Nowadays, people in Beijing have it all. Many young white collar professionals have their own apartments, cars, cell phone. They play the internet games. They enjoy vacations to same destinations as we do. Their life style is quite similar with ours. With per capita GDP in excess 8,000 US dollars, Beijing qualifies for what the World Bank defines as a “moderately developed countries.” (Other two Chinese cities enjoy the same qualification are Shanghai and Guangdong.) On the other hand, with 3.5 millions cars, the Beijing residents also kissed goodbye to the blue skies.

For those who do not already know, year 2008 is not the first time Beijing partitioned to host the Olympic Games. The first time Beijing made a serious attempt was for the year of 2000. That effort was thawed shamelessly by a bunch of anti-China activists on pure political grounds. As a result of some under-the-table maneuvering, Beijing lost her bit by 2 votes. In the evening Sydney celebrated her nomination, tears dripped down the cheeks of millions of Chinese and friends. Friday’s Opening Ceremony was a vindication. Eight years later, Beijing was able to prove what she deserves. Eight year of quiet hardworking and preparations have made the city stronger and more capable to pay for a bill of over 40billion yuan on the infrastructure. Gold glistens. People may cover gold with mud to stop it from glistening. Before long, rain and wind will wash away the bud and gold will shine again. Beijing is such a piece of gold. Beijing, my hometown, let me wish you many, many good lucks for a long, long time.

10 Tips to Staying Motivated During Job Search

For those of us who associate their success with kind of work they do, job title they have, it is quite possible for them to lose their self-esteem when they are in transition.

(1) Know your strengths, and take inventory of your primary and secondary skills.

(2) Explore your hidden talents i. e. volunteer work, any past internship, teaching experiences. This may lead you to look for other areas of job search that you may not thought of. Some talents may lead to substantial financial gain or additional source of income while you search for a right job.

(3) Update your skills. It can be a new skills, or brushing up on secondary skills, or refresh the old ones that you once liked. Knowledge is power and is an on going process. Be open to learning.

(4) Stay physically fit. While in transition, you no longer have a set routine. Physical fitness equals mental fitness. Physical fitness helps focus and concentration.

(5) Create a SMART job search action plan that includes your narrowed skills set for the job type you are searching.

(6) Use Technology to your advantage to free up some of your time, such as reminders, flags, tags, calendars, alarms etc. to manage your to do lists.

(7) Stay connected with your support network including your professional references. Let them know what you had been up to recently and any special skills or certification you now have or you have progressed in your career. Let them amplify your strong strengths and skills.

(8) Reward yourself. Take time off to yourself and enjoy the activities you love.

(9) Revise your action plan. There is always trial and error when you are trying something new. You may not get feedback on how it lands to different people. You are best judge of your skills, see what works best in your favor.

(10) Stay in action until you find what you are looking for. Keep on doing what you are doing. Results will show up, some actions may take longer than others, but if you believe that you are working in the right direction, then stay motivated and allow time for results to show up.

Above all, remember that 'YOU' only you are managing your own productivity. Stay motivated and stay in action!

Ritu Chopra
Blog:www.winnercircle.org

Longing for the Revolutionary Spirits

July 4th is a time think about our country. In 1776, on this date, the Founding Fathers signed the Declaration of Independence in Philadelphia. For the next 232 years, people celebrated this day as the birth day of this great nation. For me, I would rather trace the birth of this nation to a year earlier, to April 19th, 1775 when the first shot of military struggle was fired near Lexington, Massachusetts. Without a series of heroic military battles, the Declaration of Independence, no matter how eloquent it might be, would remain a piece of paper. The revolutionary war gave significance to the Declaration of Independence .

The glory of the United States reached its peak in 1945 after defeating Nazi Germany and Japan in World War II. Afterwards, the 2 non-victories, the Korean and Vietnam Wars served to bring this country downwards. With a great President Ronald Regan, the Unites States regained part of its lost glory by winning the Cold War. Through unrelenting courage and determination, we finally brought down the Soviet Union. Short of live firing of weapons, the Cold War matched a war in level of mobilizing the national resources.

Today, this country is at war again. Many citizens, some prominent political figures, harbor reservations on this War on Terror. For millions of others, especially those who have been to the ground zero, supporting their troops is never a moral hurdle. The War on Terror is a just war. The United States has the legitimate rights to defend itself after having been attached first.

President G.W. Bush has rightly called this war a ‘War on Terror.’ What puzzles me is that why he has not been fighting a war like a war. Those precision weapons are wonderful things. But if they become ineffective in dealing with terrorists hiding in mountain caves, we should use something else. The outcome of a war is measured in winning or losing, not on how. ‘War is hell,’ a great Civil War general William Tecumseh Sherman once said. Because of his cruelty (or determination), Sherman won the fame as the ‘butcher.’ No matter how people later labeled him, General Sherman played a vital role in the North winning the Civil War. If President Lincoln had used General George McClellian for another year, the war would have been lost and we will not see our country as the United States of today.

As civilization evolves, majority of world has learned to resolve their differences through peaceful talks. Unfortunately, with a few exceptions, military struggle through the hell is still necessary. With this on going War on Terror, what this country calls for is a commander in chief who can lead us to a complete victory. Only after and beyond, we will be able to devote our full time and energy to the cause of world peace.

Are American People Ready For A Black President?

Last week, as Senator Barack Obama won the Democratic Party presidential nomination and the former first lady Hillary Rodham Clinton bowed out of the race, the American presidential politics has opened up a new chapter. For the first time in American history, we see a realistic possibility for a black man to become this country’s president.

Are American People Ready For A Black President?

If the last 18 months of tight campaign within Democratic Party has a clue, we will have to wonder the following questions:

Who voted for Obama because of his skin color?
Who voted for Obama because they hate Clinton?
Who voted for Obama because they believe, compared with Clinton, Obama will be a weaker rival for John McCain in the presidential election?

It has been reported that supporters of Senator Obama have most been young people who are eager for changes. Obama satisfied those desires by posting as an agent for changes. It is reported that Obama also took advantage those less sophiscated minds by providing little contents in this promises.

But this strategy of over promising is not new. Sixteen years ago, a young governor from a small southern state successfully used this strategy to capture the hearts of millions of Americans. That man was the former president William Jefferson Clinton, the husband of Senator Hillary Clinton. Many news analysts say Hillary’s team miss-managed the campaign. They did not. Her strategy was to repeat her husband success and her team executed her strategy faithfully. The only problem was that her opponent outdid her on her own blueprint.

Many others voted for Obama for his skin color. Bill Clinton was the most pro-black president in the United States history. Hillary hoped that she could inherit her husband reputation, but she was wrong. As soon as the black voters saw a candidate of their own color, they changed their minds. Hillary’s campaign could not have done anything in this regard. Race is still a dark and dirty secret in American life. Skin color matters.

Road for Obama will be anything but a smooth one. All those issues that Obama managed to escape unscathed will be opened up again as the right wing conservative forces will join force to fight their new rival. The majority people in this country are still white. Whether this majority is ready to accept a black president remains to be tested.

Obama has been an inspirational speaker to preach the converted. When it comes to the majority of middle road American, he will have to come out with a lot more details. The more details he gets, the more people he will alienate and the less his campaign will look glamorous.

As an Asian American, white guilt has no place in my thought. If back makes up 10 percent of the U.S population, the odd of electing a black individual is 10 percent. The chance will stay the same in each election. ‘It is time’ is never a sufficient argument. The goal of a presidential election is to find the best person to lead this county. The Presidency is not a welfare program. It is better for a black presidential candidate to emerge from someone who has been naturally established himself/herself by serving prominent leadership positions, such as General Powell and Secretary Rice. A successful President will be the one who is free from campaign presures.

I predict Senator McCain will collect the majority of votes in the November national election. He will turn out to be an acceptable candidate. McCain came off the Republican primary virtually unscathed. Many of his rivals committed political suicides. (An example would be the one time untouchable Mr. 911 Rudy Juliani.) The prolonged Democratic primary also helped McCain since Obama and Hillary have deeply wounded each other. Luck is important. Often, being the right man at the right spot is all it takes to win. Within the Republican Party, a few ultra right wingers, who had been disappointed at McCain’s compromising senate serving record, will again rally behind McCain once they see their other choice is a black man with an ultra liberal mind.

I personally would prefer to vote on the Demotic line. McCain is going to get my vote this time. Compared with the past two presidents, McCain is a true American hero. He served this country loyally and honestly. His patriotism is beyond doubt. He will be a suitable symbol for the highest office of this country.

This year’s Democratic primary will be remembered for a long time. It is the first time in American history that a black and a woman citizen become so close to the presidency. This year will be the beginning year of a new ear. Both Obama and Clinton have made their footprints in the American presidential history. Forward looking, both will continue to be active as prominent political figures. United States of America will remain an envy of the world for a long time. May God richly bless this land and its people!

slow cars in fast lanes are dangerous too

No doubt all drivers ought to observe speed limits. Those who cruise leisurely have the same rights to use the roads as everyone else. However, common sense also tells us that the safest way to drive is to follow the traffic flow where one's relative speed with other moving vehicles is the lowest. Those who have difficulties or lack of willingness to follow the traffic should flush to the right lanes where it is safe for themselves as well all others. The majority of drivers in rush hours have tight schedules. A fair share of public attention has been given to speeding. It is time to let know that consistently driving above and below the speed limits are both against the laws. Police has been ticketing speeders all the time. Now it is time for the police to start giving traffic summons to the traffic stalkers as well.



I

a new era of high energy costs

The gas price has become high. On Sunday, when I filled up my Honda accord gas tank, the bill was a whopping $43 at $4.09 per gallon on the regular. My other SUV which requires premium gas cost more than $80 to fill up. I protect. The gas price at this level is disruptive to my life.

In the past 20 years, the gasoline price has been largely low and stable. This environment made people forget that oil had been a scare and non-renewable natural resource. I came to this country 22 years ago. Gasoline was below one dollar per gallon then. Sometimes, the gas stations gave 2 glasses as gifts to customers who filled up their tanks. Afterwards, the gasoline prices rose to $1 plus change, $2 plus change and $3 plus change.

A low and stable gasoline price contributed to the economic expansions. Suburbs mushroomed around cities. People began to build larger and larger houses. One can generally guess the year in which the neighborhood was built by the sized of the houses. The bigger the size, the later in years in which those houses were built. More and more people relied on driving for almost everything they do. Their vehicles became larger and larger – SUVs and sometimes just trucks. A low gasoline price was responsible for this wasteful life style.

On the other hand, a low gas price inhibited the development of the public transportations. Nowadays, for many living in the suburban areas, buses and commuter trains are off limit. A low gas price also removed incentives for industries to deploy and market energy conservation technologies. We know that many car manufactures have had some gas efficient designs for many years. The gas mileages for cars have remained unchanged for the past 20 years.

While we generally believe that a free market is the most efficient form of economy, we also know that a sudden price upswing in a key component in people’s daily life and the economy may become disruptive. The oil shock in the 70s was a good example.

Last week, in response to growing public and political pressure over soaring gasoline prices, President Bush said the Federal Trade Commission (FTC), U.S. Department of Justice and the U.S. Energy Department are conducting inquires into illegal manipulation of gasoline prices. In addition, the FTC and the U.S. Attorney General are contacting all 50 state attorneys general to urge them to also investigate possible market manipulation.

While welcoming the government interventions, I also believe the government has to do much more. The oil shock in the 70s was a politically motivated event. But this current oil price hike has profound reasons. Most of the world oil reserves have been discovered. The chance of finding another major oil reservoir is small. In the mean while, the world oil demand has been steadily rising along with the growth of the world economy, especially the BRIC countries. We have entered a new era of high energy costs.

It is high time for the government to change its long standing practice by permitting offshore drilling near the US shore lines and in the state of Alaska. By announcing such an intention, the US government will be able to bring down the oil prices in the world markets.

In the long run, governments and people all over the world should be encouraged to engage in energy conservation and exploring alternate energy sources. We will all have to drive less in smaller cars, put up with less heating in winter and air conditioning in summer. We will have to develop a habit of turning on and off the lights as we enter and leaving the rooms. We all will do whatever we can to save a bundle here and there.

Imaging soon, our highways will have only half of today’s traffic, imaging half of the cars on roads will be outfitted with natural gas tubes, hybrid engines or just outright electrical, what a leisurely and clean world we all will be in! Oil prices will once again be at 99 cents per gallon. But who will care by then?

There are news reports that some companies and schools are considering let students and workers work on a 4 day per week schedule. Not a bad idea. I would like to add that 5 day a week telecommuting is an even better option. In stead of spending 3 hours behind a steering wheel a day, I will be kicking and jumping in my back yard. I can use the time to play tennis, golf; I can go to the gym everyday instead once a week; I can go fishing, boating or tan on the Spring Lake beaches; I will not miss my favorite TV series or a newly releases movies; I will be able to eat 3 meals with my family; I will never have to leave dishes unwashed after breakfast; I can attend more job training classes and become more productive for my employer. I am looking forward to that day.

The Economist Has No Clothes

Year in and year out, ivory tower macroeconomists congratulate one another through well established forums such as Nobel prize for their contributions to the general understanding of how the economy works. College professors like to boast that economics is the most rigorous department in the school of sciences and arts. Some modest professors say economics is half science and half arts. Now it is time to expose all of those claims. The current state of ecnomics is neither a science nor art.

With high inflation, high unemployment, worldwide shortage of natural resource and environmental pollution, we need an economic theory that provides understanding and guidance. It is high time for economists to get rid of all un-natural assumptions. It is high time for economists to stop hiding behind those seemingly rigorous mathematical equations. Robert Nadeau's article deserves a nobel prize.

=========================================================



Unscientific assumptions in economic theory are undermining efforts to solve environmental problems

By Robert Nadeau

The 19th-century creators of neoclassical economics—the theory that now serves as the basis for coordinating activities in the global market system—are credited with transforming their field into a scientific discipline. But what is not widely known is that these now legendary economists—William Stanley Jevons, Léon Walras, Maria Edgeworth and Vilfredo Pareto—developed their theories by adapting equations from 19th-century physics that eventually became obsolete. Unfortunately, it is clear that neoclassical economics has also become outdated. The theory is based on unscientific assumptions that are hindering the implementation of viable economic solutions for global warming and other menacing environmental problems.

The physical theory that the creators of neoclassical economics used as a template was conceived in response to the inability of Newtonian physics to account for the phenomena of heat, light and electricity. In 1847 German physicist Hermann von Helmholtz formulated the conservation of energy principle and postulated the existence of a field of conserved energy that fills all space and unifies these phenomena. Later in the century James Maxwell, Ludwig Boltzmann and other physicists devised better explanations for electromagnetism and thermodynamics, but in the meantime, the economists had borrowed and altered Helmholtz’s equations.

The strategy the economists used was as simple as it was absurd—they substituted economic variables for physical ones. Utility (a measure of economic well-being) took the place of energy; the sum of utility and expenditure replaced potential and kinetic energy. A number of well-known mathematicians and physicists told the economists that there was absolutely no basis for making these substitutions. But the economists ignored such criticisms and proceeded to claim that they had transformed their field of study into a rigorously mathematical scientific discipline.

Strangely enough, the origins of neoclassical economics in mid-19th century physics were forgotten. Subsequent generations of mainstream economists accepted the claim that this theory is scientific. These curious developments explain why the mathematical theories used by mainstream economists are predicated on the following unscientific assumptions:

* The market system is a closed circular flow between production and consumption, with no inlets or outlets.

* Natural resources exist in a domain that is separate and distinct from a closed market system, and the economic value of these resources can be determined only by the dynamics that operate within this system.

* The costs of damage to the external natural environment by economic activities must be treated as costs that lie outside the closed market system or as costs that cannot be included in the pricing mechanisms that operate within the system.

* The external resources of nature are largely inexhaustible, and those that are not can be replaced by other resources or by technologies that minimize the use of the exhaustible resources or that rely on other resources.

* There are no biophysical limits to the growth of market systems.

If the environmental crisis did not exist, the fact that neoclassical economic theory provides a coherent basis for managing economic activities in market systems could be viewed as sufficient justification for its widespread applications. But because the crisis does exist, this theory can no longer be regarded as useful even in pragmatic or utilitarian terms because it fails to meet what must now be viewed as a fundamental requirement of any economic theory—the extent to which this theory allows economic activities to be coordinated in environmentally responsible ways on a worldwide scale. Because neoclassical economics does not even acknowledge the costs of environmental problems and the limits to economic growth, it constitutes one of the greatest barriers to combating climate change and other threats to the planet. It is imperative that economists devise new theories that will take all the realities of our global system into account.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR(S)

Robert Nadeau teaches environmental science and public policy at George Mason University. His most recently published book is The Environmental Endgame (Rutgers University Press, 2006)

http://www.sciam.com/article.cfm?id=the-economist-has-no-clothes

My heart goes with those victims in 5-12 earthquake in Sichuan, China

ZFS on Solaris10

##
## Let us now experiment with ZFS
## here is my general environment:
##

MySolaris10Host# date
Wed Feb 20 16:05:17 EST 2008
MySolaris10Host# uname -a
SunOS MySolaris10Host 5.10 Generic_118833-24 sun4u sparc SUNW,Ultra-80
MySolaris10Host# psrinfo
0 on-line since 02/16/2008 10:22:04
1 on-line since 02/16/2008 10:22:23
2 on-line since 02/16/2008 10:22:23
3 on-line since 02/16/2008 10:22:23
MySolaris10Host# prtconf -v grep Memory
Memory size: 4096 Megabytes
MySolaris10Host#

##
## my current SAN disks
##

MySolaris10Host# vxdisk -o alldgs list
DEVICE TYPE DISK GROUP STATUS
c0t0d0s2 auto:none - - online invalid
c0t1d0s2 auto:none - - online invalid
emcpower0s2 auto:simple - - online
emcpower1s2 auto:simple - (someothersdg) online

MySolaris10Host# echo format
Searching for disks...done


AVAILABLE DISK SELECTIONS:
0. c0t0d0
/pci@1f,4000/scsi@3/sd@0,0
1. c0t1d0
/pci@1f,4000/scsi@3/sd@1,0
2. c4t28d53
/pci@1f,4000/lpfc@2/sd@1c,35
3. c4t28d54
/pci@1f,4000/lpfc@2/sd@1c,36
4. c5t72d53
/pci@1f,4000/lpfc@4/sd@48,35
5. c5t72d54
/pci@1f,4000/lpfc@4/sd@48,36
6. emcpower0a
/pseudo/emcp@0
7. emcpower1a
/pseudo/emcp@1
Specify disk (enter its number): Specify disk (enter its number):
MySolaris10Host#


MySolaris10Host# inq
Inquiry utility, Version V7.3-648 (Rev 2.0) (SIL Version V6.0.2.0 (Edit Level 648)
Copyright (C) by EMC Corporation, all rights reserved.
For help type inq -h.

.....................

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
DEVICE :VEND :PROD :REV :SER NUM :CAP(kb)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
/dev/rdsk/c0t0d0s2 :SEAGATE :ST318404LSUN18G :4207 : : 17689266
/dev/rdsk/c0t1d0s2 :SEAGATE :ST318404LSUN18G :4207 : : 17689266
/dev/rdsk/c4t28d53s2 :EMC :SYMMETRIX :5771 :5902adf000 : 17679360
/dev/rdsk/c4t28d54s2 :EMC :SYMMETRIX :5771 :5902ae1000 : 17679360
/dev/rdsk/c5t72d53s2 :EMC :SYMMETRIX :5771 :5902adf000 : 17679360
/dev/rdsk/c5t72d54s2 :EMC :SYMMETRIX :5771 :5902ae1000 : 17679360
/dev/rdsk/emcpower0c :EMC :SYMMETRIX :5771 :5902adf000 : 17679360
/dev/rdsk/emcpower1c :EMC :SYMMETRIX :5771 :5902ae1000 : 17679360
/dev/vx/rdmp/c0t0d0s2 :SEAGATE :ST318404LSUN18G :4207 : : 17689266
/dev/vx/rdmp/c0t1d0s2 :SEAGATE :ST318404LSUN18G :4207 : : 17689266
/dev/vx/rdmp/emcpower0s2 :EMC :SYMMETRIX :5771 :5902adf000 : 17679360
/dev/vx/rdmp/emcpower1s2 :EMC :SYMMETRIX :5771 :5902ae1000 : 17679360

##
## I will use emcpower0s2 which has "SER NUM" at 5902adf000
## which correponds to c5t72d53s2
## you may create pool on either disk names
## the powerpath will work regardless
## I prefer to use cXtXdXs2 because it is easier to identify
##

MySolaris10Host# zpool create -f testpool c5t72d53s2

##
## to verify the disk has changed
##

MySolaris10Host# format c5t72d53
selecting c5t72d53
[disk formatted]
/dev/dsk/c5t72d53s2 is part of active ZFS pool testpool. Please see zpool(1M).


FORMAT MENU:
disk - select a disk
type - select (define) a disk type
partition - select (define) a partition table
current - describe the current disk
format - format and analyze the disk
repair - repair a defective sector
label - write label to the disk
analyze - surface analysis
defect - defect list management
backup - search for backup labels
verify - read and display labels
save - save new disk/partition definitions
inquiry - show vendor, product and revision
volname - set 8-character volume name
! - execute , then return
quit
format> p


PARTITION MENU:
0 - change `0' partition
1 - change `1' partition
2 - change `2' partition
3 - change `3' partition
4 - change `4' partition
5 - change `5' partition
6 - change `6' partition
7 - change `7' partition
select - select a predefined table
modify - modify a predefined partition table
name - name the current table
print - display the current table
label - write partition map and label to the disk
! - execute , then return
quit
partition> p
Current partition table (original):
Total disk cylinders available: 18414 + 2 (reserved cylinders)

Part Tag Flag Cylinders Size Blocks
0 unassigned wm 0 0 (0/0/0) 0
1 unassigned wm 0 0 (0/0/0) 0
2 backup wu 0 - 18413 16.86GB (18414/0/0) 35354880
3 - wu 1 - 18413 16.86GB (18413/0/0) 35352960
4 unassigned wm 0 0 (0/0/0) 0
5 unassigned wm 0 0 (0/0/0) 0
6 unassigned wm 0 0 (0/0/0) 0
7 unassigned wm 0 0 (0/0/0) 0

partition> ^D

# by default /testpool entry point has been created.
# note, you may alter this default with -m option


##
## check pool status
##
MySolaris10Host# zpool status
pool: testpool
state: ONLINE
scrub: none requested
config:

NAME STATE READ WRITE CKSUM
testpool ONLINE 0 0 0
c5t72d53s2 ONLINE 0 0 0

errors: No known data errors

MySolaris10Host# zfs get all testpool
NAME PROPERTY VALUE SOURCE
testpool type filesystem -
testpool creation Wed Feb 20 15:59 2008 -
testpool used 34.1M -
testpool available 16.5G -
testpool referenced 24.5K -
testpool compressratio 1.00x -
testpool mounted yes -
testpool quota none default
testpool reservation none default
testpool recordsize 128K default
testpool mountpoint /testpool default
testpool sharenfs off default
testpool checksum on default
testpool compression off default
testpool atime on default
testpool devices on default
testpool exec on default
testpool setuid on default
testpool readonly off default
testpool zoned off default
testpool snapdir hidden default
testpool aclmode groupmask default
testpool aclinherit secure default
MySolaris10Host#

MySolaris10Host# df -h
Filesystem size used avail capacity Mounted on

... # cut some lines here

testpool 16G 24K 16G 1% /testpool

##
## now, create file system "ZFS"
##

MySolaris10Host# zfs create testpool/testfs
MySolaris10Host# df grep testfs
/testpool/testfs (testpool/testfs ):34578223 blocks 34578223 files
MySolaris10Host# zfs set mountpoint=/opt/testfs testpool/testfs
MySolaris10Host# zfs get all testpool/testfs
NAME PROPERTY VALUE SOURCE
testpool/testfs type filesystem -
testpool/testfs creation Wed Feb 20 16:34 2008 -
testpool/testfs used 34.0M -
testpool/testfs available 16.5G -
testpool/testfs referenced 34.0M -
testpool/testfs compressratio 1.00x -
testpool/testfs mounted yes -
testpool/testfs quota none default
testpool/testfs reservation none default
testpool/testfs recordsize 128K default
testpool/testfs mountpoint /opt/testfs local
testpool/testfs sharenfs off default
testpool/testfs checksum on default
testpool/testfs compression off default
testpool/testfs atime on default
testpool/testfs devices on default
testpool/testfs exec on default
testpool/testfs setuid on default
testpool/testfs readonly off default
testpool/testfs zoned off default
testpool/testfs snapdir visible local
testpool/testfs aclmode groupmask default
testpool/testfs aclinherit secure default
MySolaris10Host# df -h grep testfs
testpool/testfs 16G 24K 16G 1% /opt/testfs


##
## create and destroy snapshots
##
MySolaris10Host# zpool create pool_on_pool /dev/zvol/dsk/testpool/testvol
warning: device in use checking failed: No such device
MySolaris10Host# zpool list
NAME SIZE USED AVAIL CAP HEALTH ALTROOT
pool_on_pool 195M 80K 195M 0% ONLINE -
testpool 16.8G 35.3M 16.7G 0% ONLINE -
MySolaris10Host# zfs get all pool_on_pool
NAME PROPERTY VALUE SOURCE
pool_on_pool type filesystem -
pool_on_pool creation Wed Feb 20 17:30 2008 -
pool_on_pool used 77K -
pool_on_pool available 163M -
pool_on_pool referenced 24.5K -
pool_on_pool compressratio 1.00x -
pool_on_pool mounted yes -
pool_on_pool quota none default
pool_on_pool reservation none default
pool_on_pool recordsize 128K default
pool_on_pool mountpoint /pool_on_pool default
pool_on_pool sharenfs off default
pool_on_pool checksum on default
pool_on_pool compression off default
pool_on_pool atime on default
pool_on_pool devices on default
pool_on_pool exec on default
pool_on_pool setuid on default
pool_on_pool readonly off default
pool_on_pool zoned off default
pool_on_pool snapdir hidden default
pool_on_pool aclmode groupmask default
pool_on_pool aclinherit secure default

MySolaris10Host# cd /opt/testfs
MySolaris10Host# ls
MySolaris10Host# pwd
/opt/testfs
MySolaris10Host# find /etc cpio -pdm ./
cpio: Cannot open "/etc/vx/vxesd/vxesd.socket", skipped, errno 122, Operation not supported on transport endpoint
76880 blocks
1 error(s)
MySolaris10Host# ls
etc
MySolaris10Host# df -k .
Filesystem kbytes used avail capacity Mounted on
testpool/testfs 17289216 34818 17254310 1% /opt/testfs
MySolaris10Host# zfs snapshot testpool/testfs@testsnap
MySolaris10Host# zfs set snapdir=visible testpool/testfs
MySolaris10Host# ls -al
total 22
drwxr-xr-x 3 root sys 3 Feb 20 16:59 .
drwxr-xr-x 27 bin bin 1024 Feb 20 16:34 ..
dr-xr-xr-x 3 root root 3 Feb 20 16:34 .zfs
drwxr-xr-x 70 root sys 264 Feb 20 16:59 etc
MySolaris10Host# cd .zfs/snapshot/testsnap
MySolaris10Host# ls
etc
MySolaris10Host#
rsweb2-h# cd /opt/testfs
MySolaris10Host# df -k
Filesystem kbytes used avail capacity Mounted on
/dev/md/dsk/d0 6196234 5925575 208697 97% /
/devices 0 0 0 0% /devices
ctfs 0 0 0 0% /system/contract
proc 0 0 0 0% /proc
mnttab 0 0 0 0% /etc/mnttab
swap 7306320 1080 7305240 1% /etc/svc/volatile
objfs 0 0 0 0% /system/object
fd 0 0 0 0% /dev/fd
swap 7340680 35440 7305240 1% /tmp
swap 7305280 40 7305240 1% /var/run
/dev/md/dsk/d3 7070981 1469832 5530440 21% /opt
testpool 17289216 24 17254309 1% /testpool
testpool/testfs 17289216 34818 17254309 1% /opt/testfs
MySolaris10Host# pwd
/opt/testfs
MySolaris10Host# ls
etc
MySolaris10Host# rm -rf etc
MySolaris10Host# ls
MySolaris10Host# cd
MySolaris10Host# pwd
/
MySolaris10Host# zfs rollback testpool/testfs@testsnap
MySolaris10Host# cd /opt/testfs
MySolaris10Host# ls
etc
MySolaris10Host# zfs destroy testpool/testfs@testsnap

##
## create a volume on an existing pool
##
#rsweb2-h# df -h -F zfs
Filesystem size used avail capacity Mounted on
testpool 16G 24K 16G 1% /testpool
testpool/testfs 16G 34M 16G 1% /opt/testfs
MySolaris10Host# zfs create -V 200m testpool/testvol
MySolaris10Host# ls -lL /dev/zvol/*dsk/testpool
/dev/zvol/dsk/testpool:
total 0
brw------- 1 root sys 256, 1 Feb 20 17:29 testvol

/dev/zvol/rdsk/testpool:
total 0
crw------- 1 root sys 256, 1 Feb 20 17:29 testvol

##
## create a pool on pool
##
MySolaris10Host# zpool create pool_on_pool /dev/zvol/dsk/testpool/testvol
warning: device in use checking failed: No such device
MySolaris10Host# zpool list
NAME SIZE USED AVAIL CAP HEALTH ALTROOT
pool_on_pool 195M 80K 195M 0% ONLINE -
testpool 16.8G 35.3M 16.7G 0% ONLINE -
MySolaris10Host# zfs get all pool_on_pool
NAME PROPERTY VALUE SOURCE
pool_on_pool type filesystem -
pool_on_pool creation Wed Feb 20 17:30 2008 -
pool_on_pool used 77K -
pool_on_pool available 163M -
pool_on_pool referenced 24.5K -
pool_on_pool compressratio 1.00x -
pool_on_pool mounted yes -
pool_on_pool quota none default
pool_on_pool reservation none default
pool_on_pool recordsize 128K default
pool_on_pool mountpoint /pool_on_pool default
pool_on_pool sharenfs off default
pool_on_pool checksum on default
pool_on_pool compression off default
pool_on_pool atime on default
pool_on_pool devices on default
pool_on_pool exec on default
pool_on_pool setuid on default
pool_on_pool readonly off default
pool_on_pool zoned off default
pool_on_pool snapdir hidden default
pool_on_pool aclmode groupmask default
pool_on_pool aclinherit secure default
MySolaris10Host# df -F zfs
/testpool (testpool ):34099012 blocks 34099012 files
/opt/testfs (testpool/testfs ):34099012 blocks 34099012 files
/pool_on_pool (pool_on_pool ): 333670 blocks 333670 files
MySolaris10Host# zfs create pool_on_pool/poolonpool_fs1
MySolaris10Host# zfs set mountpoint=/opt/poolonpool_fs1 pool_on_pool/poolonpool_fs1
MySolaris10Host# df -h -F zfs
Filesystem size used avail capacity Mounted on
testpool 16G 24K 16G 1% /testpool
testpool/testfs 16G 34M 16G 1% /opt/testfs
pool_on_pool 163M 26K 163M 1% /pool_on_pool
pool_on_pool/poolonpool_fs1
163M 24K 163M 1% /opt/poolonpool_fs1

##
## destroy everything
##

rsweb2-h# zfs umount -a
MySolaris10Host# df -F zfs
MySolaris10Host#
MySolaris10Host# zfs destroy pool_on_pool/poolonpool_fs1
MySolaris10Host# zfs destroy testpool/testfs
MySolaris10Host# zpool destroy pool_on_pool
MySolaris10Host# zpool destroy testpool

MySolaris10Host# format c5t72d53
selecting c5t72d53
[disk formatted]


FORMAT MENU:
disk - select a disk
type - select (define) a disk type
partition - select (define) a partition table
current - describe the current disk
format - format and analyze the disk
repair - repair a defective sector
label - write label to the disk
analyze - surface analysis
defect - defect list management
backup - search for backup labels
verify - read and display labels
save - save new disk/partition definitions
inquiry - show vendor, product and revision
volname - set 8-character volume name
! - execute , then return
quit
format> p


PARTITION MENU:
0 - change `0' partition
1 - change `1' partition
2 - change `2' partition
3 - change `3' partition
4 - change `4' partition
5 - change `5' partition
6 - change `6' partition
7 - change `7' partition
select - select a predefined table
modify - modify a predefined partition table
name - name the current table
print - display the current table
label - write partition map and label to the disk
! - execute , then return
quit
partition> p
Current partition table (original):
Total disk cylinders available: 18414 + 2 (reserved cylinders)

Part Tag Flag Cylinders Size Blocks
0 unassigned wm 0 0 (0/0/0) 0
1 unassigned wm 0 0 (0/0/0) 0
2 backup wu 0 - 18413 16.86GB (18414/0/0) 35354880
3 - wu 1 - 18413 16.86GB (18413/0/0) 35352960
4 unassigned wm 0 0 (0/0/0) 0
5 unassigned wm 0 0 (0/0/0) 0
6 unassigned wm 0 0 (0/0/0) 0
7 unassigned wm 0 0 (0/0/0) 0

partition> ^D
MySolaris10Host# date
Wed Feb 20 17:49:53 EST 2008
MySolaris10Host#

Inflation is here again

Bloomberg reports that the U.S. producer prices rose almost twice as much as forecast. Food and energy stoked the 1.1 percent gain in wholesale prices in March, the Labor Department reported today in Washington. Yet, we, the consumers, do not need the government statistics to know that we are paying more for gas, for food and from there for almost everything.

Reporters blame the high prices to crude oil, to ethanol as an alternate energy, to the War in Iraq and even to China – all plausible. However, they all missed the point. An overall rise of price levels may only be caused by one reason – too much money chasing after too few goods in the markets. Who is capable of creating the excessive money? The government. Only the government has access to the money printing machines. The Bush government in the past 8 years carried out a reckless fiscal policy which has been the direct cause for inflation. Millions upon millions were spent on “Wars on Terror,” homeland securities. Under the political circumstances, few, if any, politicians came out to question those spending. All those money the government spent without revenue backing became government deficits which drove up the price level. We know the government levy taxes. Most of the taxes we are all familiar with. When we make money, we pay income tax. When we spend money, we pay sales tax. When we die, our children pay inheritance tax if we still have money left. We seldom realize that inflation induced by government deficit is also a form of tax. Yes, you are right, it is known as inflation tax. Compared with other forms of taxes, the inflation tax is vicious because it causes the social wealth to be redistributed at random whips. The results of such wealth redistribution are often undesirable. Additionally, inflation causes uncertainties which makes it difficult for business to engage in transactions, especially long term ones. What follows such uncertainties are slowdown of business activities and the economy. One may argue that in a capitalist system, business cycles are inevitable. True. But an economic downturn resulted from bad government policies are not part of business cycles. They are human mistakes. Someone should be asked to take the responsibility for such an economic turbulence.

Olympic Touch in San Francesco

I watched the entire Touch Relay on CNN. Folks in SF, good job! The mayor, the police chief, the street police, those who are out there to celebrate the true Olympic spirit as well as the demonstrators. The Han Chinese and the Tibetans are not deadly enemies. Do not believe Richard Gere who is a prefessinoal liar and instigator.

London and Paris, shame on both of you.




Talking with one another for 20 minutes about Tibet, this Tibetan dropped down his "Free Tibetan" sign and said from deep down, he also wanted to celebrate the Olympics.

Beijing, my home city, best wishes for 2008.

Why is Tibet part of China?

Before answering this question, let me turn around with some other questions.

Why is Hong Kong part of China now? Because the colony’s British ruler was not able and willing to fight against the Chinese claim in 1997.

Why is XinJiang part of China? Because China won some key battles in early 1900 and conquered the area.

Why is Mongolia, which used to be part of Qing Dynasty Chinese Empire, an independent state now? Because Joseph Stalin believed an independent Mongolia was necessary for the safety of the Soviet territories in Far East. China was too weak to intervene right after the World War II.

Why is Taiwan still independent today? Because the United State has been provide military backing to the government on the island.

This kind of questions and answers can be extended to any part of the world. We are where we are not because of media exposures and debates. The relative strength of countries determines the outcome of geographical boundaries. Today’s destiny of Tibet is no different from those of any other areas in the world. Not fair? Unfortunately, this has been the reality of this world. Those people who charge the Chinese for ‘invading’ Tibet need to examine the history of their own countries as well.

Arguing about whether Tibet has historically been an independent state is equally futile. People on either side of this debate will have plenty of “evidences” to support his case. History is like a talented young girl. One may let her put on different costumes and play many roles. On the internet one will find people with high academic profiles on both sides of the arguments.

Dalai Lama and his supporters charge the Chinese government of systematic racial discrimination. I do not believe this charge is true. On the contrary, in order to keep this land and to pacify the local residents, the Chinese government has adopted many policies in favor of the minorities. For example, an ethnic Tibetan high school student may get into the top Chinese universities by scoring half of national minimum in the college entrance examinations. There are many other more substantial ‘affirmative actions.’

Will there ever be equality between the indigenous Tibetans and the emigrant Han Chinese? I doubt. The Chinese government will be considered very successful if the gap will not become wider. To bring equality to two racial groups with different temperaments is an un-resolvable issue in the world. Since the civil movement, the US government has passed many laws to help the minorities. Is there racial equality between blacks and whites today? Statistics are out there. Are there tensions and ‘misunderstandings’ between blacks and whites? A recently surfaced tape on Obama’s long time priest’s church speeches give a glimpse to the grim reality.

Another issue the pro-Tibetan movements raise is that the Han Chinese has been ‘systematically’ destroying the Tibetan culture. I am not sure how this can be done. A culture as profound as the one in Tibet will not be ‘destroyed’ as long as the vehicles that carries this culture – the people, the religious institutions – are still around. To keep this culture so pristine that it will not be affected by any outside influence remains a dream. In many aspects, Tibet will move forward along with the World. In Lhasa, the capital of Tibet, five star hotels and modern shopping malls will exist not far from traditional shopping Bazaar and Mosques. The monks will be studying Buddhist scripts during the day and IM with his friends with his 3G wireless phone in his spare time.


Will independence solve all problems? Hell no. I see independence as a beginning of many other conflicts. Without the Han Chinese, those returning from exile will find plenty of enemies of their own race. In the past 50 years, the Chinese government has trained thousands upon thousands of ethnical Tibetan cadres. They are now mayors, judges or in other high government positions. It will take a lot of imagination to believe the returned Dalai people, mostly formal tribe bosses, plantations owners or high clergymen, will work side by side with those Chinese trained cadres, many of whom direct decedents of formal noble servants or slaves.

Nowadays, Dalai Lama has won wide sympathy and support for accusing the Chinese of unfairly treating the Tibetans. It remains to be seen if the Dalai Lama’s regime will treat the non-Tibetans living in Tibet with fairness. Expelling the Han Chinese is a tempting way to get rid of bad influence on the Tibetan culture. Ethnical cleansing will cause another humanitarian problem.

Not all Tibetans live in what is now Tibet. According to a plan by Dalai Lama’s exile government, the future Tibetan state will include territories of all lands inhabited by Tibetans – a greater Tibet. By record, many of the Tibetan tribes outside Tibet have never been reporting to Lhasa since the downfall of a Tibetan dynasty since the 9th century. Until recently, part of Tibet and Gansu province are under the influence of Banchan Lama – one of the two highest Tibetan spiritual leaders. A unified greater Tibet never existed in history. I am not sure Dalai Lama’s plan is based on what reasons.

The drawing of boundary will be another problem. The border regions are co-inhabited by Tibetans, Han Chinese, Hui (Moslem) and other minority tribes. Some will have to live under some other people’s central government. For most others what difference it makes to live in Tibet as part of China or an independent Tibet?

Since the eruption of violence in Lhasa on March 14, Tibet has once again caught the attention of the whole world. For those who automatically place their sympathy on the weaker side, I say, please continue to pay attention and please make sure you put Tibet in the contest that racial issues exist not only in China but all over the world. For those who do not trust the Chinese communist party government, I say, many overseas Chinese share your view. But China has made tremendous progress in the past 20 years. Let us hope as China moves forward towards a more open society, all will change. Freedom will shine in China just as freedom shines in many other places in the world. For those China haters, I say, your dream will not come true. In order to break up China, you will first have to make her much weaker – weaker than the Chairman Mao’s time. In order to weaken China, you will need to break her up. Can you figure our which one comes first, chicken or egg? External force won’t work on China. To break Kosovo off Yugoslavia, President Clinton sent some F22s. To break Tibet off China, you will need WMD – not one or two but dozens. Are you out of your mind?

The Solaris 10 Introductory course has been overhauled

Sun has done an exceedingly good job in overhauling its Solaris 10 introductory course on https://learningconnection.sun.com.

Since this is a free course, I think all should take moment to go over it. For UNIX system administrators, the heavy sales accent in the course material is a bit annoying, but the visually pleasant presenation coupled with a professional voice over compensates this difficulty. 5 hours will pass quickly. I took this course 2 years ago. It was not nearly half of today's quality. My understanding about Solaris 10 is way beyond this course level, but I still sat through the entire course without omitting anything. I admire the presentation.

Here is the full name of the course:

Solaris(TM) 10: Ten Moves Ahead of the Competition - (WS-245-S10)

This is not an April fool thing. This is for real.

Today, we received our company's offical death certificate.

The Week That Shook Wall Street -- The Wall Street Journal Online Edition

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The Week That Shook Wall Street:
Inside the Demise of Bear Stearns
By ROBIN SIDEL, GREG IP, MICHAEL M. PHILLIPS and KATE KELLY
March 18, 2008; Page A1

The past six days have shaken American capitalism.

Between Tuesday, when financial markets began turning against Bear Stearns Cos., and Sunday night, when the bank disappeared into the arms of J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., Washington policy makers, federal regulators and Wall Street bankers struggled to keep the trouble from tanking financial markets and exacerbating the country's deep economic uncertainty.


The mood changed daily, as did the apparent scope of the problem. On Friday, Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson thought markets would be calmed by the announcement that the Federal Reserve had agreed to help bail out Bear Stearns. President Bush gave a reassuring speech that day about the fundamental soundness of the U.S. economy. By Saturday, however, Mr. Paulson had become convinced that a definitive agreement to sell Bear Stearns had to be inked before markets opened yesterday.

Bear Stearns's board of directors was whipsawed by the rapidly unfolding events, in particular by the pressure from Washington to clinch a deal, says one person familiar with their deliberations.

"We thought they gave us 28 days," this person says, in reference to the terms of the Fed's bailout financing. "Then they gave us 24 hours."

In the end, Washington more or less threw its rule book out the window. The Fed, which has been at the forefront of the government response, made a number of unprecedented moves. Among other things, it agreed to temporarily remove from circulation a big chunk of difficult-to-trade securities and to offer direct loans to Wall Street investment banks for the first time.

The terms of the Bear Stearns sale contained some highly unusual features. For one, J.P. Morgan retains the option to purchase Bear's valuable headquarters building in midtown Manhattan, even if Bear's board recommends a rival offer. Also, the Fed has taken responsibility for $30 billion in hard-to-trade securities on Bear Stearns's books, with potential for both profit and loss. The question now looming over the transaction: Has the government set a precedent for propping up failing financial institutions at a time when its more traditional tools don't appear to be working? Cutting interest rates -- which the Fed is expected to do again today, by between a half percentage point and a full point -- hasn't yet done much to loosen capital markets gummed up by piles of bad debt.

Even though the transaction ultimately could leave taxpayers on the hook for losses, the political response so far has been fairly positive. "When you're looking into the abyss, you don't quibble over details," said New York Democratic Senator Charles Schumer.

Tuesday, March 11

From the earliest days of the financial crisis that began last year, the Federal Reserve had been working on contingency plans to lend to investment banks. Such firms regularly asked for government help to finance their large inventories of securities such as mortgage-backed bonds. They hoped to get the same favorable terms the Fed also gave to banks that borrow from its "discount window." But the Fed is barred from making such loans to firms that aren't banks, except by invoking a special clause which it hadn't used to lend money since the Great Depression. Officials worried that the drama surrounding a decision to do something for the first time since the 1930s could be damaging to confidence.

On Tuesday, officials unveiled what they thought came close: a promise to lend up to $200 billion in Treasury bonds to investment banks for 28 days. In return, the Treasury would get securities backed by home mortgages, whose uncertain values helped spark the current crisis, and other hard-to-trade collateral. The first swap was scheduled for March 27. At first, the firms were elated.

That same day, the market began turning on Bear Stearns. Phones were ringing off the hook at rival firms such as Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Morgan Stanley and Credit Suisse Group. Clients of those firms were growing worried about trades they had entered into with Bear Stearns -- about whether Bear Stearns would be able to make good on its obligations. The clients asked the other investment banks whether they would be willing to take the clients' places in the trades. But credit officers at Goldman, Morgan Stanley and others -- worried themselves about Bear Stearns's condition -- began to say no.


At Bear Stearns, Chief Financial Officer Samuel Molinaro, along with company lawyers and Treasurer Robert Upton, were trying to make sense of the situation. They felt comfortable with their capital base of roughly $17 billion and were looking forward to reporting Bear Stearns's first-quarter earnings, which had been respectable amid the market carnage.

One theory began developing internally: Hedge funds with short positions on Bear -- bets that the company's stock would fall -- were trying to speed the decline by spreading negative rumors.

For the first part of the week, Chief Executive Officer Alan Schwartz was out of pocket. Although Bear Stearns had been struggling with mortgage-related losses and problems in its wealth-management unit, Mr. Schwartz was hosting a Bear Stearns media conference in Palm Beach, Fla. On Wednesday morning, he left the conference briefly to do an interview with CNBC in an effort to deflect rumors about liquidity issues at the firm.

Thursday

On Thursday evening, after customers had continued to pull their money out of Bear Stearns, the bank reached out to J. P. Morgan, looking to discuss ways the Wall Street giant could help ease Bear's cash crunch.

By then, Bear Stearns's cash position had dwindled to just $2 billion. In a conference call at 7:30 p.m., officials at Bear Stearns and the Securities and Exchange Commission told Fed and Treasury officials that the firm saw little option other than to file for bankruptcy protection the next morning.

Bear Stearns's hope was that the Fed would make a loan from its discount window to provide several weeks of breathing room. That, the firm hoped, would perhaps halt a run on the bank by allowing it to swap bonds for the cash necessary to return to customers.

The Fed's standard preference in dealing with a troubled institution is to first seek a private-sector solution, such as a sale or financing agreement. But the possibility of a bankruptcy filing Friday morning created a hard deadline.

A trigger point was looming for Bear Stearns in the so-called repo market, where banks and securities firms extend and receive short-term loans, typically made overnight and backed by securities. At 7:30 a.m., Bear Stearns would have to begin paying back some of its billions of dollars in repo borrowings. If the firm didn't repay the money on time, its creditors could start selling the collateral Bear had pledged to them. The implications went well beyond Bear Stearns: If other investors questioned the safety of loans they made in the repo market, they could start to withhold funds from other investment banks and companies.

The $4.5 trillion repo market isn't a newfangled innovation like subprime-backed collateralized debt obligations. It is a decades-old, plain-vanilla market critical to the smooth functioning of capital markets. A default by a major counterparty would have been unprecedented, and could have had unpredictable consequences for the entire market.


Federal Reserve Bank of New York President Timothy Geithner worked into the night, grabbing just two hours of sleep near the bank's downtown Manhattan headquarters. His staff spent the night going over Bear's books and talking to potential suitors including J. P. Morgan. The hard reality was that even interested buyers said they needed more time to go over the company.

The pace and complexity of events left Bear's board of directors groping for answers. "It was a traumatic experience," says one person who participated. Sleep deprivation set in, with some of the hundreds of attorneys and bankers sleeping only a few hours during a 72-hour sprint. Dress was casual, with neckties quickly shorn.

Friday

At 5 a.m. Friday, Mr. Geithner, Mr. Paulson and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, calling in from home, joined a conference call to debate whether Bear should be allowed to fail or whether the Fed should lend it enough money to get through the weekend. At 7 a.m. they settled on the lifeline option. Mr. Bernanke assembled the Fed's other three available governors to vote for the loan, the first time since the Depression the Fed would use its extraordinary authority to lend to nonbanks.

The Fed announced that it would lend Bear money, through J.P. Morgan, for up to 28 days to get the venerable investment bank through its cash crunch. At 9 a.m., Mr. Geithner, Mr. Paulson and aides addressed a conference call of bond dealers and bankers. Mr. Paulson took the lead, saying the dealer community had "a stake" in the overall deal working out.


But the markets didn't take well to the news that a major investment bank was on the brink of failure. Stocks sank. Other investment banks were seeing lenders turn cautious. Fed officials led by Bill Dudley, head of open-market operations, began planning a more direct response: opening the discount window to all investment banks, a request the Fed had resisted for months.

J.P. Morgan's effort to buy Bear kicked into high gear on Friday afternoon, just hours after the big bank and the Fed had provided Bear with the 28-day lifeline. Steve Black, co-head of J.P. Morgan's investment bank, returned early from vacation in the Caribbean, spearheading the bank's efforts with his J.P. Morgan counterpart in London, Bill Winters.

Mr. Black's role was pivotal. He was a longtime associate of J.P. Morgan Chief Executive James Dimon. And Mr. Black had a long relationship with Bear's CEO, Mr. Schwartz, dating back to the 1970s, when the two were fraternity brothers at Duke University.

J.P. Morgan bankers were broken into some 16 teams -- all with specific due-diligence assignments. Some focused on Bear's prime-brokerage business, which was attractive to J.P. Morgan. Others concentrated on technical operations, commodities, and the like.

As some Fed staffers worked from a conference room on Bear's 12th floor, Federal Reserve officials insisted that the firm complete a deal that weekend. Officials made it clear the loan was only for the short term to ensure a deal got done as quickly as possible. Their priority was that Bear's counterparties -- the parties that stood on the other side of its trades -- would be able to arrive at work Monday knowing their contracts were good, minimizing the risk of a generalized flight from the markets.

Treasury Secretary Paulson knew that the day's work wouldn't be enough to keep Bear afloat over the long term. Still, Mr. Paulson, a former Goldman Sachs chief executive and the administration's point man for financial markets, thought Bear Stearns would survive through the weekend.

Saturday

That illusion was shattered Saturday morning, when Mr. Paulson was deluged by calls to his home from bank chief executives. They told him they worried the run on Bear would spread to other financial institutions. After several such calls, Mr. Paulson realized the Fed and Treasury had to get the J.P. Morgan deal done before the markets in Asia opened on late Sunday, New York time.

"It was just clear that this franchise was going to unravel if the deal wasn't done by the end of the weekend," Mr. Paulson said in an interview yesterday.

A year ago, Mr. Paulson wouldn't have considered Bear Stearns big enough that its collapse would present a threat to the U.S. financial system. But confidence in the economy and financial sector are so shaky now that he had no doubt that the Fed and government had to act to prevent its bankruptcy, according to a senior Treasury official.

At 8 a.m. Saturday, the J.P. Morgan bankers assembled to receive instructions in the bank's executive offices, located on the 8th floor of its Park Avenue headquarters. One hour later, they headed down the street to Bear Stearns's headquarters to pore over Bear's books. Due diligence had begun.

Back at J.P. Morgan's headquarters, top executives set up war rooms on the executive floor, commandeering offices of colleagues who weren't directly involved in the negotiations. Bankers darted in and out of offices searching for the top brass, who were also moving from room to room. Mr. Dimon, wearing slacks and a dark sweater, urged the bankers to stay calm and focused. "Everyone take a deep breath," he said at one point.

By 7:30 p.m., hunger pangs had taken hold. Someone ordered Chinese food. A security guard lay out a buffet spread.

That evening, Mr. Black got on the phone to Mr. Schwartz, Bear Stearns's CEO. J.P. Morgan would be willing to buy Bear Stearns, subject to the conclusion of due diligence, he told Mr. Schwartz. The J.P. Morgan executives didn't set a specific price, instead providing a dollars-per-share range, according to people familiar with the matter. At the high end was a figure in the low double digits, these people say.

By 1 a.m., the bankers headed home for a few hours of sleep.

Sunday

Early the next morning, Messrs. Dimon and Black and other top executives sat around a conference-room table to discuss the situation. One by one, they began expressing concern about the speed at which the situation was progressing. They weren't comfortable with the level of due diligence being conducted. Were there more problems hidden deep in Bear's balance sheet that they hadn't found yet? Would market turmoil result in more problems? Was J.P. Morgan really willing to take such a risk without full information?

"Things didn't firm up -- they got more shaky," according to one person familiar with the meeting.

Finally, they came to a conclusion. J.P. Morgan wouldn't buy Bear Stearns on its own. The bank needed help before it would do the deal.

Mr. Paulson was frequently on the phone with Bear and J. P. Morgan executives, negotiating the details of the deal, the senior Treasury official said. Initially, Morgan wanted to pick off select parts of Bear, but Mr. Paulson insisted that it take the entire Bear portfolio, the official said.


This was no normal negotiation, says one person involved in the matter. Instead of two parties, there were three, this person explains, the third being the government. It is unclear what explicit requests were made by the Fed or Treasury. But the deal now in place has a number of features that are highly unusual, according to people who worked on the transaction.

In addition to its option to purchase Bear's headquarters building, J.P. Morgan has the option to purchase just under 20% of Bear Stearns's shares at a price of $2 each. That feature gives J.P. Morgan an ability to largely block a rival offer, says a person with knowledge of the contract.

The deal also is highly "locked up," meaning that J.P. Morgan cannot walk, even if there is a heavy deterioration in Bear's business or future prospects. Bear Stearns holders can, of course, vote the deal down. But the effect that would have on J.P. Morgan's ongoing managerial oversight and the Fed's guarantees is largely unknown.

"We're in hyperspace," says one person who worked on the deal. All these matters are very likely to be litigated in court eventually, this person adds.

The Fed spent the weekend putting together a plan to be announced Sunday evening, regardless of the outcome of Bear's negotiations, that would enable all Wall Street banks to borrow from the central bank. Mr. Bernanke called the Fed's five governors together for a vote Sunday afternoon. All five voted in favor, using for the second time since Friday the Fed's authority to lend to nonbanks.

The steps were announced at the same time the Fed agreed to lend $30 billion to J.P. Morgan to complete its acquisition of Bear Stearns. The loans will be secured solely by difficult-to-value assets inherited from Bear Stearns. If the assets decline in value, the Fed -- and therefore the U.S. taxpayer -- will bear the cost.

Aware of the potential political backlash, Fed and Treasury officials briefed Democrats throughout the weekend. Events moved so fast that there was little time for much substantive outreach. Mr. Bernanke spoke with Massachusetts Democrat and House Financial Services Committee Chairman Barney Frank on Friday. Fed staffers emailed updates to Mr. Frank's office on Sunday.

"I believe this is the right action that was taken over the weekend," said Senate Banking Committee Chairman Christopher Dodd of Connecticut, a Democrat, who spoke with Messrs. Bernanke and Paulson on Sunday during deliberations. "To allow this to go into bankruptcy, I think, would have [created] some systemic problems that would have been massive."

--Dennis K. Berman, Damian Paletta and Sarah Lueck contributed to this article.

Wall Street does not believe in tears

On Sunday evening, JPMorgan announced that it will acquire Bear Stearns for $240 million dollars or at $2 per share. The last trade of Bear Stearns’ stock on Friday on the New York Stock exchange was at $30.85 dollars. With full consideration for its potential costs and risks, JPMorgan has got a good deal. Its stock rose $3.01, or 8.2 percent, to $39.55 at 12:05 p.m. in New York Stock Exchange while the Amex Securities Broker/Dealer Index fell 14 percent today.

I got this news through an internal email at 7:55PM on Sunday. For me as well as the 14,000 fellow Bear Stearns employees, this news was a relief. We now knew that on Monday we would still have a place to go for work. The biggest losers of this fallout will be the equity holders. It is reported that Bear Stearns former CEO James Cayne and British investor Joseph Lewis each lost over $1 billion dollars. Besides institution investors, a big group of investors will be Bear Stearns employees who own up to 30 percent of the outstanding stocks. One of my colleagues said he had accumulated 4000 shares over his 17 years of careers with Bear Stearns. Now he is facing a double jeopardy of losing both his job and the bulk of his retirement savings. While I do not know what words to use on those ‘Wall Street sharks,’ I know that those rank and file employees do not deserve this punishment. Well, Wall Street does not believe in tears.

Nowadays, the world financial markets have developed into a tightly intertwined web. Once this web shows sign of fatigue, the government does not have much time to wait before intervening. Bear Stearns was a weak link. For Fed to let this one wound bring havoc to the entire financial market was not an option. If a $30 billion loan guarantee and a merge of JPMorgan and Bear Stearns created a small unfairness for a few, so let it be. Preventing a financial market meltdown from bringing down the whole economy was an overwhelming goal.

How did we get to this situation? Within Bear Stearns, many people blade former CEO James Cayne for his laid back management style. I agree. On the macroeconomic level however, I believe, we have to blame the formal Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan. After a meltdown of the internet bubble around year 2000, Greenspan kept interest rate low to stimulate the economy. While it was correct and effective to use monetary policy, Greenspan over did it. If Greenspan were a doctor, he kept his patient on blood transfusion too long. A patient who had developed dependency on external help would never stand up on himself. That patient was the economy under Greenspan. After becoming the new Fed Chairman in February 2006, Ben Bernanke attempted to use monetary policy to fight inflation. As soon as Bernanke raised interest rate, the housing market started to dive. The monetary policy had been abused in such that it could no longer be used for its textbook purpose.

Another reason for today’s meltdown lies in the technicality of today’s complex mortgage business model which has developed in such that originators, package makers, issuers and mortgage paper owners are separated. Given low cost of funding (remember Greeenspan?), the mortgage originators had all the incentives to lend. They did the lending as much and as fast as they could. Don’t you forget we are still a capitalist society? What if a loan would go bad and affect the mortgage owners, the originators could not care less. Stories have come out the mortgage lenders colluded with borrowers cheating on the paper work to get the loans approved. Because the mortgage business process was complicated, many of the mortgage owners knew less of what they should have known about those loan packages . Once they started to smell bad and started opening some of the boxes to look inside, bad news came out. As boxes after boxes of bad loans got exposed, we got to where we are.

P.S. The latest news on wire says that JPMorgan plans to cut half of the current Bear Stearns headcounts. Well, all I can do now is to hope that I can survive this cut. I would also like to offer my prayers to evey fellow Bear Stearns employees. For tonight, I wish we all sleep well. Tomorrow is another day.